Two situations to deal with the subjective meaning of probability in the elementary school: students’ productions and teachers’ knowledge

Resumen

There is an ongoing demand to emphasize the use of probability as a subjective measure ofuncertainty in elementary schools at the international level. We propose two situations to teach students the subjective meaning of probability and how to incorporate new experimental information in their probability assessments. These activities were implemented with 5th-grade students (10-11 years old). Our results align with previous research and highlight the ability of 5th-graders to process contextual information and integrate it with their understanding of chance and the context, even if they may struggle with the mathematical expression of their reasoning. Additionally, we examine the specialized knowledge and beliefs that teachers need to mobilize in these situations. By combining an analysis of student reasoning and teacher knowledge, our goal is to design effective lessons on subjective probability that can be successfully implemented in the classroom.