Gestión del impacto económico de eventos climáticos extremosel caso de la ganadería ovina cárnica en extensivo en Extremadura y de la producción de soja y maíz en Argentina

Résumé

One of climate change main consequences is an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events. This is reflected in increased losses in most agricultural activities. However, there is a paucity of research that generates a robust valuation of the impact of such events on these activities. The aim of this work is to identify, evaluate and generate an adaptation strategy for the economic impact of these events. Two very different cases have been analysed: extensive sheep farming in Extremadura and soybean and maize production in Argentina. After studying the livestock activity, it is concluded, on the one hand, that there is an indirect impact of extreme weather events through the increase in feed supplementation. On the other hand, two representative farm types are analysed, concluding that one of them has arrived losses due to extreme precipitation deficit. A financial adaptation tool is developed to cover the feed price by 65.3%. From the analysis of soybean and maize, it is concluded that there is a direct impact as these crops are grown without irrigation. Moreover, as they are crops with a high Argentinean export weight, the losses have a macroeconomic impact. A projection of soybean production is made using 115 climate models with the aim of generating macro-fiscal planning. It is concluded that future losses will double those of the past due to an increase in the frequency of extreme events.