Dynamic criteria: a longitudinal analysis of professional basketball players' outcomes

  1. García Izquierdo, Antonio León 1
  2. Ramos Villagrasa, Pedro J.
  3. Navarro Cid, José 2
  1. 1 Universidad de Oviedo
    info

    Universidad de Oviedo

    Oviedo, España

    ROR https://ror.org/006gksa02

  2. 2 Universitat de Barcelona
    info

    Universitat de Barcelona

    Barcelona, España

    ROR https://ror.org/021018s57

Revista:
The Spanish Journal of Psychology

ISSN: 1138-7416

Año de publicación: 2012

Volumen: 15

Número: 3

Páginas: 1133-1146

Tipo: Artículo

DOI: 10.5209/REV_SJOP.2012.V15.N3.39403 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openAcceso abierto editor

Otras publicaciones en: The Spanish Journal of Psychology

Resumen

En este artículo describimos las fluctuaciones en el tiempo del rendimiento de jugadores profesionales de baloncesto buscando patrones deterministas y de qué tipo son. Para ello, analizamos los resultados de 94 jugadores profesionales mediante un estudio longitudinal de series temporales de diez años de duración. Analizamos las series temporales utilizando las técnicas que se proponen desde la teoría de sistemas dinámicos no lineales. Mediante estas técnicas podemos descubrir los patrones subyacentes de los resultados sin tener que realizar asunciones previas sobre la linealidad o no linealidad de los datos, ni transformaciones de los mismos para que se ajusten a priori a una distribución. En los resultados encontrados, la mayoría de los jugadores muestran un patrón determinista (88.30%), de los cuales la mayoría son caóticos (81.92%) que obtienen mejores resultados que los lineales. El alto número de patrones caóticos encontrados parece indicar que debemos ser precavidos a la hora de evaluar y tomar decisiones sobre el rendimiento de los jugadores, y que la gestión de equipos debe asumir que la incertidumbre es una parte importante en este contexto.

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Información de financiación

This research is partially supported by Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, project reference DER2010-21686-C02-01, for the first author. Financial support for the second author (grant: UNOV-09-BECDOC-S) given by the Universidad de Oviedo and Banco Santander is acknowledged.

Financiadores

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